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South American Men's Championships · 2026 · Men
7 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Panama more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Panama started on 72%; Panama batted first.
Panama's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Brazil: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP Guzmancaught · LA Goncalves · Yasar Haroon 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · LA Goncalves · b Yasar Haroon | 13 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 81.25 |
| MY Bawacaught · W Maximo · LG Moras 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Maximo · b LG Moras | 16 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 72.73 |
| Yusuf Bhoolabowled · RV Nascimento 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b RV Nascimento | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Irfan Hafejeecaught · MFI Assuncao · RV Nascimento 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MFI Assuncao · b RV Nascimento | 12 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Lalu Bhai Ahirlbw · RV Nascimento 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b RV Nascimento | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| bowled · b G Oliveira |
| 5 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
| Abdul Makdastumped · W Maximo · MFI Assuncao 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · W Maximo · b MFI Assuncao | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Kalpesh Ahircaught · LA Goncalves · MFI Assuncao 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · LA Goncalves · b MFI Assuncao | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| BB Ahirnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| AK Ahirrun out · LH Rodrigues, MFI Assuncao · MFI Assuncao 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · LH Rodrigues, MFI Assuncao | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Sarkar Amejinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LH Rodrigues0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
| LG Moras1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| G Oliveira0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasar Haroon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| RV Nascimento0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3.33 | 1 | 1 |
| MFI Assuncao0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-29 (MY Bawa, 5.2) · 2-34 (SP Guzman, 7.5) · 3-46 (Yusuf Bhoola, 10.2) · 4-51 (Irfan Hafejee, 12.1) · 5-54 (Lalu Bhai Ahir, 12.5) · 6-67 (Abdul Makda, 15.2) · 7-71 (Sufiyan Tarajia, 16.4) · 8-77 (Kalpesh Ahir, 17.4) · 9-92 (AK Ahir, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 38/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 56/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 61/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 70/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 71/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 79/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 88/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 93/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.