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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier A · 2024 · Men
3 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Maldives started on 16%; Maldives batted first.
Maldives's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Hong Kong: 63% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK Wijesinghacaught · Nasrulla Rana · Yasim Murtaza 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nasrulla Rana · b Yasim Murtaza | 21 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 84.00 |
| Umar Adambowled · Ateeq Iqbal 2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Ateeq Iqbal | 26 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 173.33 |
| Mohamed Rishwanbowled · Ateeq Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ateeq Iqbal | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Mohamed Azzamcaught and bowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Mohamed Shiyambowled · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Yasim Murtaza | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Ateeq Iqbal · b Ehsan Khan |
| 11 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 52.38 |
| Ibrahim Hassanbowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Rizanrun out · Zeeshan Ali, Babar Hayat · Ayush Shukla 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zeeshan Ali, Babar Hayat | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Azin Rafeegnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Mohamed Miuvaanbowled · Ayush Shukla 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayush Shukla | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shunan Alinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayush Shukla0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Nasrulla Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-46 (Umar Adam, 5.1) · 2-48 (Mohamed Rishwan, 6.0) · 3-56 (GPK Wijesingha, 8.4) · 4-59 (Mohamed Shiyam, 10.2) · 5-71 (Mohamed Azzam, 13.1) · 6-80 (Mabsar Abdulla, 15.1) · 7-89 (Ibrahim Hassan, 17.2) · 8-98 (Ibrahim Rizan, 18.4) · 9-98 (Mohamed Miuvaan, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 62/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 71/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 74/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 80/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 82/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 89/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 92/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 98/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 102/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.