EstoniaversusFinland

25 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 9 wickets

Estonia20.0 overs63/8 Finland6.0 overs64/1 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Estonia more likely to win

70%Estonia30%Finland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Estonia rate stronger than Finland (1,341 vs 1,236 on our results rating)
Estonia are playing at home in Estonia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Estonia started on 68%; Estonia batted first.

Estonia’s chance of winning (%) · Finland is the rest

Estonia's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (Finland: 30% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.1: M Kojo to A Vessik, A Vessik out. Finland up from 34% to 40%.
13.4: Malyun Hassan to S Pattenden, S Pattenden out. Finland up from 72% to 78%.
19.6: T Mulepati to Nisha Kulkarni, 0 runs to Nisha Kulkarni. Finland up from 80% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Estonia63/8 Finland64/1

Innings 1

Estonia

63/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Estonia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
G Madanayakecaught and bowled · T Mulepati 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b T Mulepati	5	25	0	0	20.00
A Vessikcaught and bowled · M Kojo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b M Kojo	4	13	0	0	30.77
E Ellermaacaught · Malyun Hassan · Elina Rama 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Malyun Hassan · b Elina Rama	3	26	0	0	11.54
Ragne Hallikcaught · T Mulepati · Malyun Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · T Mulepati · b Malyun Hassan	12	16	0	0	75.00
M Valnercaught and bowled · Elina Rama 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Elina Rama	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Kojo1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	1	1.75	5	0
L Martin0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	0	4.25	8	0
R Khullar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	0	1.50	2	0
Elina Rama0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	2	3.67	5	0
T Mulepati1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	2	2.50	3	0
Malyun Hassan0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	2	4.50	6	0
S Sheridan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/0
3	1	8/0
4	5	13/0
5	0	13/1
6	3	16/1
7	3	19/1
8	5	24/1
9	3	27/1
10	2	29/2
11	2	31/4
12	5	36/5
13	6	42/5
14	6	48/7
15	5	53/7
16	3	56/7
17	1	57/7
18	3	60/8
19	3	63/8
20	0	63/8

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