**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusSunrisers Eastern Cape

22 Jan 2024 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 9 wickets

Pretoria Capitals13.3 overs52/10 Sunrisers Eastern Cape6.5 overs54/1 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 43%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Sunrisers Eastern Cape is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Sunrisers Eastern Cape: 45% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: DJ Worrall to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 46% to 55%.
3.1: M Jansen to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 55% to 67%.
5.1: OEG Baartman to CA Ingram, CA Ingram out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 80% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals52/10 Sunrisers Eastern Cape54/1

Innings 1