**McLean Park, Napier**
Photo: Ovalise
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

Central DistrictsversusCanterbury

17 Jan 2025 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 15 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs190/4 Canterbury20.0 overs175/8 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 52%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Canterbury: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

0.4: KA Jamieson to JCT Boyle, JCT Boyle out. Canterbury up from 47% to 60%.
2nd inns 3.3: BG Randell to TWM Latham, TWM Latham out. Central Districts up from 72% to 81%.
2nd inns 13.2: BM Tickner to MJ Hay, MJ Hay out. Central Districts up from 82% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts190/4 Canterbury175/8

Innings 1