IndiaversusNew Zealand

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,832 vs 1,680 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and New Zealand won 2 (1 tied)
• India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

India started on 80%; India batted first.

India's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.5: KA Jamieson to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 13% to 20%.
2. 2.5: JA Duffy to Ishan Kishan, Ishan Kishan out. New Zealand up from 18% to 28%.
3. 4.1: KA Jamieson to Abhishek Sharma, six by Abhishek Sharma. India up from 75% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.