KenyaversusUganda

19 Sept 2026 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kenya won by 39 runs

Kenya20.0 overs170/7 Uganda17.5 overs131/10 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

27%Kenya73%Uganda

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 9 and Kenya won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,702 vs 1,634 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kenya started on 25%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Kenya's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.6: LN Oluoch to R Obuya, R Obuya out. Kenya up from 44% to 58%.
2nd inns 2.5: S Gill to Anas Baig, Anas Baig out. Kenya up from 56% to 69%.
2nd inns 3.5: LN Oluoch to Olipa Gerald, Olipa Gerald out. Kenya up from 81% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kenya170/7 Uganda131/10

Innings 1

Kenya

170/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rushab Patelcaught · Kenneth Waiswa · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kenneth Waiswa · b Juma Miyagi	1	2	0	0	50.00
Dhiren Gondariarun out · C Musemez, Riazat Ali Shah · M Musinguzi 5 fours · 2 sixes	run out · C Musemez, Riazat Ali Shah	44	32	5	2	137.50
Rakep Patelcaught · Kenneth Waiswa · E Kasaija 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kenneth Waiswa · b E Kasaija	1	5	0	0	20.00
Gurdeep Singhcaught · Juma Miyagi · Riazat Ali Shah 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Juma Miyagi · b Riazat Ali Shah	8	7	0	1	114.29
Sachin Gillcaught · Kenneth Waiswa · M Musinguzi 0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	1	1
E Kasaija0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	2	0
Riazat Ali Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	1	10.00	2	0
M Musinguzi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	1	0
J Baguma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	1	0
Kenneth Waiswa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	13	20/1
3	4	24/1
4	4	28/2
5	6	34/3
6	4	38/3
7	9	47/3
8	10	57/3
9	4	61/3
10	10	71/4
11	5	76/4
12	3	79/4
13	5	84/4
14	7	91/5
15	13	104/6
16	4	108/6
17	15	123/6
18	13	136/7
19	14	150/7
20	20	170/7

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