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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
22 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 55%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Milind Kumar · Nosthush Kenjige 12 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Nosthush Kenjige | 67 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 152.27 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzelbw · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zane Greenbowled · Shadley van Schalkwyk 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 17 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 56.67 |
| Gerhard Erasmuslbw · Yasir Mohammad 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Yasir Mohammad | 14 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Malan Krugerlbw · Shadley van Schalkwyk0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shadley van Schalkwyk |
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (United States of America: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| JJ Smitrun out · Monank Patel · Milind Kumar 3 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Monank Patel | 60 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Smit Patel · Shadley van Schalkwyk 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 49 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 104.26 |
|---|
| DO Leicherrun out · Shayan Jahangir, Jasdeep Singh · Jasdeep Singh 2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Shayan Jahangir, Jasdeep Singh | 32 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 103.23 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 31* | 19 | 1 | 2 | 163.16 |
|---|
| Peter-Daniel Blignautrun out · Smit Patel, Milind Kumar · Jasdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smit Patel, Milind Kumar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungameninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 59 | 4 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 6.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 8.00 | 8 | 1 |
| Nosthush Kenjige1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Yasir Mohammad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 1.5) · 2-84 (Michael van Lingen, 12.3) · 3-86 (Zane Green, 13.5) · 4-88 (Malan Kruger, 15.1) · 5-117 (Gerhard Erasmus, 24.4) · 6-202 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 40.0) · 7-237 (JJ Smit, 44.4) · 8-282 (DO Leicher, 49.2) · 9-283 (Peter-Daniel Blignaut, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 15 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 63/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 15 | 84/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 85/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 86/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 94/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 18 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 100/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 103/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 106/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 110/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 116/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 117/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 122/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 125/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 126/5 |
| 29 | 14 | 140/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 143/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 145/5 |
| 32 | 23 | 168/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 175/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 176/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 178/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 180/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 186/5 |
| 38 | 11 | 197/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 199/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 202/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 204/6 |
| 42 | 10 | 214/6 |
| 43 | 14 | 228/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 232/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 238/7 |
| 46 | 11 | 249/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 257/7 |
| 48 | 11 | 268/7 |
| 49 | 13 | 281/7 |
| 50 | 5 | 286/9 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
