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England tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
6 Feb 2025 · ODI
Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, Jamtha, Nagpur · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 24%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltrun out · Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul · Hardik Pandya5 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul | 43 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 165.38 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Harshit Rana6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Harshit Rana | 32 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 110.34 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Ravindra Jadeja1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 19 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 61.29 |
 Harry Brookcaught · KL Rahul · Harshit Rana0 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (India: 41% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · KL Rahul · b Harshit Rana |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Hardik Pandya · Axar Patel4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Axar Patel | 52 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 77.61 |
|---|
| Jacob Bethelllbw · Ravindra Jadeja 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 51 | 64 | 3 | 1 | 79.69 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonecaught · KL Rahul · Harshit Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Harshit Rana | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsebowled · Mohammed Shami1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Shami | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidbowled · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ravindra Jadeja | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 18 | 3 | 1 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Saqib Mahmoodstumped · KL Rahul · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · KL Rahul · b Kuldeep Yadav | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 53 | 3 | 7.57 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.48 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 2.89 | 0 | 0 |
1-75 (Philip Salt, 8.5) · 2-77 (Ben Duckett, 9.3) · 3-77 (Harry Brook, 10.0) · 4-111 (Joe Root, 18.3) · 5-170 (Jos Buttler, 33.0) · 6-183 (Liam Livingstone, 35.4) · 7-206 (Brydon Carse, 39.5) · 8-220 (Jacob Bethell, 42.4) · 9-241 (Adil Rashid, 46.4) · 10-248 (Saqib Mahmood, 47.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 26 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 56/0 |
| 8 | 15 | 71/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 85/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 94/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 99/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 102/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 110/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 111/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 114/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 117/4 |
| 22 | 9 | 126/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 133/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 135/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 138/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 142/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 145/4 |
| 28 | 8 | 153/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 159/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 162/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 165/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 167/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 170/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 178/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 184/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 192/6 |
| 38 | 5 | 197/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 199/6 |
| 40 | 7 | 206/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 211/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 218/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 220/8 |
| 44 | 16 | 236/8 |
| 45 | 0 | 236/8 |
| 46 | 3 | 239/8 |
| 47 | 3 | 242/9 |
| 48 | 6 | 248/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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