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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
29 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 30%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Pakistan: 57% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 157.14 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Saim Ayub 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Saim Ayub | 59 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 125.53 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Mohammad Nawaz | 14 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Abrar Ahmed | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Usman Khan · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Abrar Ahmed | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| Dasun Shanakabowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Janith Liyanagebowled · Mohammad Nawaz0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangabowled · Mohammad Nawaz0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameerabowled · Salman Mirza 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Salman Mirza | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Usman Khan · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Shaheen Afridi | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 7.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Pathum Nissanka, 2.4) · 2-84 (Kusal Mendis, 10.3) · 3-98 (Kamil Mishara, 13.1) · 4-103 (Kushal Janith Perera, 14.4) · 5-104 (Pavan Rathnayake, 15.0) · 6-105 (Janith Liyanage, 15.3) · 7-111 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 17.5) · 8-111 (Dasun Shanaka, 18.2) · 9-113 (Mahesh Theekshana, 18.5) · 10-114 (Dushmantha Chameera, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 56/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 68/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 78/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 81/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 86/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 92/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 98/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 100/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 104/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 106/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 107/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 111/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 114/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 114/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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