AustriaversusHungary

28 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 157 runs

Austria20.0 overs322/7 Hungary20.0 overs165/10 GB Oval, Szodliget ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

78%Austria22%Hungary

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Hungary (1,542 vs 1,360 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 5 and Hungary won 1
Hungary are playing at home in Hungary

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 78%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Hungary is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (Hungary: 0% to 22%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Muhammad Saqlain to Karanbir Singh, four by Karanbir Singh. Austria up from 78% to 81%.
2.2: Muhammad Saqlain to Bilal Zalmai, Bilal Zalmai out. Hungary up from 10% to 14%.
2.4: Muhammad Saqlain to Irfan Safi, Irfan Safi out. Hungary up from 14% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria322/7 Hungary165/10

Innings 1

Austria

322/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Karanbir Singhcaught · Muhammad Saqlain · Ibrar Ahmad (2) 18 fours · 12 sixes	caught · Muhammad Saqlain · b Ibrar Ahmad (2)	164	57	18	12	287.72
Bilal Zalmaicaught · Ali Nawaz · Muhammad Saqlain 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ali Nawaz · b Muhammad Saqlain	10	6	2	0	166.67
Irfan Safibowled · Muhammad Saqlain 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Muhammad Saqlain	0	2	0	0	0.00
Shadnan Khanrun out · Abbas Ghani, Muhammad Saqlain · D Gaikwad 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Abbas Ghani, Muhammad Saqlain	14	16	1	0	87.50
Hamid Saficaught · Kamran Wahid · RJ Ainsworth 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kamran Wahid · b RJ Ainsworth	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Muhammad Saqlain0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	3	10.00	4
Ibrar Ahmad (2)0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	63	2	15.75	5
MP Ainsworth0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	53	0	17.67	3
Kamran Wahid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	1
D Gaikwad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	1
RJ Ainsworth0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	20	1	20.00	1
V Ravindran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	48	0	24.00	0
Kasir Ahmed0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	25	0	25.00	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	15	30/0
3	10	40/2
4	11	51/2
5	3	54/2
6	20	74/2
7	9	83/2
8	19	102/2
9	12	114/2
10	19	133/3
11	20	153/4
12	16	169/4
13	12	181/5
14	32	213/5
15	25	238/5
16	25	263/5
17	11	274/5
18	12	286/7
19	22	308/7
20	14	322/7

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