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Women's T20I Quadrangular Series (in China) · 2024/25 · Women
8 Nov 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
China started on 41%; China batted first.
China's chances ranged from 11% to 73% during the match (Hong Kong: 27% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zi Meistumped · Hiu Ying Cheung · Emma Lai 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Hiu Ying Cheung · b Emma Lai | 18 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 58.06 |
| Xu Qianlbw · M Bibi 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b M Bibi | 8 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Jing Yangrun out · M Bibi, Iqra Sahar · M Bibi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Bibi, Iqra Sahar | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Cai Yuzhibowled · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kary Chan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jiaping Licaught · Ruchitha Venkatesh · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruchitha Venkatesh · b Kary Chan | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Mengting Liucaught and bowled · Emma Lai0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught and bowled · b Emma Lai |
| 5 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
| M Zhucaught · Y Daswani · Emma Lai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Y Daswani · b Emma Lai | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Yan Zuyingrun out · Hiu Ying Cheung, M Wai Siu · M Bibi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hiu Ying Cheung, M Wai Siu | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Wang Huiyingcaught · Chan Ka Man · Emma Lai 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chan Ka Man · b Emma Lai | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Ma Ruikenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Yang Shennot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 21 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 3 | 0 |
| M Wai Siu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| M Bibi0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 10 | 0 |
| Kary Chan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Chan Ka Man0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma Lai0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 4.75 | 4 | 1 |
1-23 (Xu Qian, 4.5) · 2-28 (Jing Yang, 6.3) · 3-36 (Cai Yuzhi, 7.3) · 4-38 (Jiaping Li, 9.3) · 5-50 (Zi Mei, 11.3) · 6-51 (Mengting Liu, 12.0) · 7-62 (M Zhu, 15.5) · 8-70 (Wang Huiying, 17.1) · 9-83 (Yan Zuying, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 36/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 37/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 40/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 44/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 51/6 |
| 13 | 2 | 53/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 56/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 58/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 63/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 70/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 75/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 83/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 87/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.