Chennai Super KingsversusGujarat Titans

26 Mar 2024 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chennai Super Kings won by 63 runs

Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs206/6 Gujarat Titans20.0 overs143/8 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 51%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Titans is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Gujarat Titans: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

1.4: UT Yadav to R Ravindra, six by R Ravindra. Chennai Super Kings up from 46% to 53%.
5.2: Rashid Khan to R Ravindra, R Ravindra out. Gujarat Titans up from 20% to 26%.
2nd inns 2.5: DL Chahar to Shubman Gill, Shubman Gill out. Chennai Super Kings up from 74% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chennai Super Kings206/6 Gujarat Titans143/8

Innings 1