**Edgbaston**
Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

Birmingham BearsversusNottinghamshire

1 Jun 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 22 runs

Birmingham Bears19.3 overs149/10 Nottinghamshire19.2 overs127/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 59%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 0% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.1: RJ Gleeson to TJ Moores, TJ Moores out. Birmingham Bears up from 27% to 45%.
2nd inns 15.3: JB Lintott to LW James, LW James out. Birmingham Bears up from 51% to 72%.
2nd inns 16.6: Hasan Ali to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Birmingham Bears up from 52% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears149/10 Nottinghamshire127/10

Innings 1