AustriaversusGuernsey

26 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 85 runs

Austria20.0 overs104/8 Guernsey6.5 overs19/10 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

57%Austria43%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Guernsey (1,356 vs 1,310 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 54%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (Guernsey: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: MPM Pathirannehelage to E Millington, E Millington out. Austria up from 45% to 63%.
2nd inns 3.4: Ashi Chopla to R Hubbard, PJ Stahelin out. Austria up from 55% to 79%.
2nd inns 4.5: SK Reddy to R Hubbard, R Hubbard out. Austria up from 78% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria104/8 Guernsey19/10

Innings 1

Austria

104/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Komati Reddybowled · C Elmore 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b C Elmore	30	40	2	0	75.00
Hadia Siddiquirun out · A Le Ray, K De La Mare · E Millington 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · A Le Ray, K De La Mare	1	1	0	0	100.00
P Sabucaught · H Atkinson · E Millington 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Atkinson · b E Millington	7	7	0	0	100.00
Sheetal Bhardwajrun out · E Millington, K De La Mare · M Watson 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · E Millington, K De La Mare	12	17	0	0	70.59
Vera Poglitschrun out · K Robert, M Watson · M Watson 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · K Robert, M Watson	0	10	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
E Millington0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	5	0
A Le Ray1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	1	4.00	5	0
E Bourgaize0 maidens · 12 wides · 2 no-balls	2.4	0	28	0	10.50	12	2
K Robert0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	1	5.00	6	0
PJ Stahelin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	0.2	0	3	0	9.00	2	0
M Watson0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	0	2.33	4	0
C Elmore0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	12	2	4.00	7	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	9	17/1
3	7	24/2
4	6	30/2
5	7	37/2
6	6	43/2
7	5	48/2
8	7	55/2
9	19	74/2
10	1	75/3
11	2	77/3
12	3	80/4
13	5	85/5
14	3	88/5
15	5	93/6
16	2	95/7
17	3	98/7
18	1	99/7
19	5	104/7
20	0	104/8

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