EnglandversusIndia

22 Jan 2025 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 wickets

England20.0 overs132/10 India12.5 overs133/3 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

22%England78%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than England (1,823 vs 1,672 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and England won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 19%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 25% during the match (India: 75% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Arshdeep Singh to PD Salt, PD Salt out. India up from 81% to 89%.
7.3: CV Varun to HC Brook, HC Brook out. India up from 75% to 82%.
7.5: CV Varun to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. India up from 82% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England132/10 India133/3

Innings 1

England

132/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Sanju Samson · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Arshdeep Singh	0	3	0	0	0.00
Ben Duckettcaught · Rinku Singh · Arshdeep Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rinku Singh · b Arshdeep Singh	4	4	1	0	100.00
Jos Buttlercaught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · Varun Chakravarthy 8 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · b Varun Chakravarthy	68	44	8	2	154.55
Harry Brook

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	42	2	10.50	3
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	3	5.75	0
Axar Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	0
Ravi Bishnoi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	0	5.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	9	12/1
3	5	17/2
4	18	35/2
5	3	38/2
6	8	46/2
7	15	61/2
8	4	65/4
9	4	69/4
10	5	74/4
11	6	80/4
12	4	84/5
13	10	94/5
14	3	97/6
15	2	99/6
16	4	103/7
17	7	110/8
18	4	114/8
19	7	121/8
20	11	132/10

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