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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
20 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 64%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Ali Naseer · Basil Hameed 9 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Ali Naseer · b Basil Hameed | 107 | 85 | 9 | 4 | 125.88 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Muhammad Jawadullah 6 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Jawadullah | 64 | 53 | 6 | 4 | 120.75 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Vishnu Sukumaran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vishnu Sukumaran | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuslbw · Ali Naseer 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ali Naseer | 19 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 146.15 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Aryansh Sharma · Ali Naseer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma |
Namibia's chances ranged from 45% to 99% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 1% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| JJ Smitbowled · Junaid Siddique 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 14 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonrun out · Aryansh Sharma, Rahul Chopra · Ali Naseer 2 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Aryansh Sharma, Rahul Chopra | 54 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Jan-Izak de Villierscaught · Basil Hameed · Rahul Bhatia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basil Hameed · b Rahul Bhatia | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzcaught · Basil Hameed · Ali Naseer 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basil Hameed · b Ali Naseer | 24 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellrun out · Basil Hameed · Ali Naseer 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Basil Hameed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungameninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 8.52 | 3 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddique1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 3 | 0 |
| Ali Naseer0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 3 | 5.70 | 4 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Waseem Muhammad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Rahul Bhatia1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 1 | 59 | 1 | 7.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Vishnu Sukumaran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-142 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 15.5) · 2-174 (Gerhard Erasmus, 21.2) · 3-174 (Malan Kruger, 21.4) · 4-212 (JJ Smit, 29.2) · 5-219 (Michael van Lingen, 32.2) · 6-233 (Jan Frylinck, 36.1) · 7-244 (Jan-Izak de Villiers, 38.0) · 8-295 (Bernard Scholtz, 47.4) · 9-300 (Jack Brassell, 49.2) · 10-313 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 19 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 35/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 38/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 48/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 58/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 71/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 75/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 84/0 |
| 11 | 10 | 94/0 |
| 12 | 19 | 113/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 114/0 |
| 14 | 14 | 128/0 |
| 15 | 6 | 134/0 |
| 16 | 9 | 143/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 145/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 148/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 152/1 |
| 20 | 10 | 162/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 173/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 174/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 179/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 182/3 |
| 25 | 10 | 192/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 197/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 204/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 209/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 211/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 213/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 215/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 219/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 221/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 226/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 227/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 233/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 236/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 244/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 248/7 |
| 40 | 0 | 248/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 253/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 260/7 |
| 43 | 6 | 266/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 272/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 280/7 |
| 46 | 4 | 284/7 |
| 47 | 6 | 290/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 295/8 |
| 49 | 4 | 299/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 313/10 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
