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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
13 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 31%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbesrun out · Nahida Akter · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nahida Akter | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught and bowled · Jannatul Ferdus 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jannatul Ferdus | 24 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 55.81 |
| Amy Hunterrun out · Nigar Sultana, Sobhana Mostary · Rabeya Khan 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nigar Sultana, Sobhana Mostary | 33 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 86.84 |
| Orla Prendergastlbw · Rabeya Khan 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rabeya Khan | 41 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 64.06 |
| Laura Delanystumped · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun 6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun | 63 | 75 | 6 | 0 | 84.00 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 9% to 92% during the match (Bangladesh: 8% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Rabeya Khan |
| 19 |
| 28 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 67.86 |
| CE Coulter Reillycaught · Nigar Sultana · Rabeya Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Rabeya Khan | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellynot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 17 | 3 | 0 | 141.18 |
|---|
| Ava Canningstumped · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 4.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jannatul Ferdus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Sarah Forbes, 3.4) · 2-56 (Gaby Lewis, 13.3) · 3-77 (Amy Hunter, 18.5) · 4-149 (Orla Prendergast, 33.4) · 5-182 (Laura Delany, 41.3) · 6-195 (Leah Paul, 43.4) · 7-215 (CE Coulter Reilly, 46.4) · 8-223 (Ava Canning, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 13/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 40/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 46/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 66/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 74/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 81/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 84/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 94/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 105/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 111/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 115/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 116/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 123/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 125/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 131/3 |
| 32 | 10 | 141/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 143/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 149/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 156/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 159/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 164/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 166/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 170/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 175/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 180/4 |
| 42 | 5 | 185/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 193/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 196/6 |
| 45 | 10 | 206/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 211/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 215/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 220/7 |
| 49 | 8 | 228/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 235/8 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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