NorthamptonshireversusWorcestershire

24 May 2026 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 100 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs191/10 Worcestershire14.4 overs91/10 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 46%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Worcestershire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Worcestershire: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

11.3: AW Finch to SA Zaib, SA Zaib out. Worcestershire up from 39% to 52%.
2nd inns 1.6: BW Sanderson to Isaac Mohammed, Isaac Mohammed out. Northamptonshire up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 3.6: BW Sanderson to BL D'Oliveira, BL D'Oliveira out. Northamptonshire up from 70% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire191/10 Worcestershire91/10

Innings 1