Islamabad UnitedversusPeshawar Zalmi

4 Mar 2024 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Islamabad United won by 29 runs

Islamabad United20.0 overs196/4 Peshawar Zalmi20.0 overs167/9 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 43%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Peshawar Zalmi is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (Peshawar Zalmi: 0% to 73%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Saim Ayub to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Peshawar Zalmi up from 56% to 73%.
2.6: Saim Ayub to C Munro, C Munro out. Peshawar Zalmi up from 55% to 68%.
2nd inns 0.4: Naseem Shah to Babar Azam, Babar Azam out. Islamabad United up from 54% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United196/4 Peshawar Zalmi167/9

Innings 1