EnglandversusSouth Africa

England more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,772 vs 1,582 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and South Africa won 3
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

England started on 75%; England batted first.

England's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.1: A Hlubi to ME Bouchier, four by ME Bouchier. England up from 78% to 81%.
2. 1.3: A Hlubi to ME Bouchier, ME Bouchier out. South Africa up from 17% to 23%.
3. 1.5: A Hlubi to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. South Africa up from 23% to 31%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.