Royal Challengers BengaluruversusPunjab Kings

17 May 2026 · T20

Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 23 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs222/4 Punjab Kings20.0 overs199/8 Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 55%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Punjab Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Punjab Kings: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Harpreet Brar to JG Bethell, JG Bethell out. Punjab Kings up from 35% to 47%.
19.6: Arshdeep Singh to TH David, TH David out. Punjab Kings up from 14% to 21%.
2nd inns 0.3: B Kumar to Priyansh Arya, Priyansh Arya out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 80% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru222/4 Punjab Kings199/8

Innings 1