MozambiqueversusEswatini

6 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Eswatini won by 3 wickets

Mozambique20.0 overs190/7 Eswatini19.3 overs191/7 Malkerns Country Club Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Eswatini more likely to win

46%Mozambique54%Eswatini

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mozambique rate stronger than Eswatini (1,441 vs 1,395 on our results rating)
Eswatini are playing at home in Eswatini
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Eswatini won 4 and Mozambique won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mozambique started on 46%; Mozambique batted first.

Mozambique’s chance of winning (%) · Eswatini is the rest

Mozambique's chances ranged from 4% to 80% during the match (Eswatini: 20% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.6: AA Navicha to Umair Qasim, six by Umair Qasim. Eswatini up from 55% to 79%.
2nd inns 17.3: AA Navicha to Saqib Anwar, Saqib Anwar out. Mozambique up from 23% to 42%.
2nd inns 18.3: JJ Huo to Umair Qasim, six by Umair Qasim. Eswatini up from 42% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mozambique190/7 Eswatini191/7

Innings 1

Mozambique

190/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mozambique batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joao Houcaught · Sufyan Naseeb · M Khojbariya 11 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Sufyan Naseeb · b M Khojbariya	69	31	11	3	222.58
LI Salomonecaught · Sufyan Naseeb · Saqib Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sufyan Naseeb · b Saqib Anwar	0	2	0	0	0.00
CB Roposocaught and bowled · Saqib Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Saqib Anwar	0	1	0	0	0.00
FFZ Nhaduatecaught · M Jele · Saqib Anwar 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · M Jele · b Saqib Anwar	12	8	0	2	150.00
Jose Bulelecaught · T Sandeep · Muhammad Farooq (2) 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · T Sandeep · b Muhammad Farooq (2)	23	33	3	0	69.70

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Saqib Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	0	0
Adil Butt (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	1	12.50	0	0
Umair Qasim0 maidens · 2 wides · 4 no-balls	3.0	41	1	13.67	2	4
M Khojbariya0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	30	1	10.00	1	1
Muhammad Farooq (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	1	3.00	0	0
Faizalmahmed Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	1	0
M Jele0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/2
2	12	15/2
3	12	27/2
4	22	49/2
5	1	50/3
6	14	64/3
7	6	70/3
8	2	72/3
9	9	81/3
10	7	88/3
11	15	103/4
12	1	104/4
13	12	116/4
14	2	118/5
15	10	128/5
16	6	134/5
17	17	151/6
18	10	161/7
19	13	174/7
20	16	190/7

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