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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
11 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 26%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonbowled · Kyle Klein 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Klein | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Noah Croes · Aryan Dutt 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Aryan Dutt | 25 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 54.35 |
| Aaditya Varadarajancaught · Max O'Dowd · Kyle Klein 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Kyle Klein | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Harsh Thakerbowled · Michael Levitt 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Levitt | 35 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 44.30 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Wesley Barresi · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Barresi · b Paul van Meekeren | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Netherlands: 71% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Wesley Barresi · b Kyle Klein |
| 65 |
| 90 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 72.22 |
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Shariz Ahmad · Paul van Meekeren1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Paul van Meekeren | 22 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 62.86 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligercaught · Michael Levitt · Paul van Meekeren 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Levitt · b Paul van Meekeren | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanabowled · Kyle Klein 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Klein | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquilbw · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Vivian Kingma | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jeremy Gordonnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 3.41 | 1 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 3.78 | 2 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.56 | 1 | 0 |
| Shariz Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 3.11 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Aaron Johnson, 1.1) · 2-26 (Aaditya Varadarajan, 5.3) · 3-50 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 14.3) · 4-51 (Nicholas Kirton, 15.2) · 5-111 (Harsh Thaker, 33.3) · 6-156 (Saad Bin Zafar, 43.4) · 7-176 (Dillon Heyliger, 45.4) · 8-183 (Kaleem Sana, 46.1) · 9-188 (Junaid Siddiqui, 47.2) · 10-194 (Shreyas Movva, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 36/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 51/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 53/4 |
| 17 | 1 | 54/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 56/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 57/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 63/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 69/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 76/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 83/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 86/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 97/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 99/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 102/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 107/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 109/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 111/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 111/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 113/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 118/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 123/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 128/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 136/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 137/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 142/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 148/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 153/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 157/6 |
| 45 | 11 | 168/6 |
| 46 | 15 | 183/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 187/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 194/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 194/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
