IndiaversusAustralia

31 Oct 2025 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 4 wickets

India18.4 overs125/10 Australia13.2 overs126/6 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

59%India41%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Australia won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Australia (1,828 vs 1,778 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 56%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Australia: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.3: NT Ellis to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Australia up from 47% to 59%.
4.5: JR Hazlewood to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. Australia up from 67% to 81%.
7.3: XC Bartlett to AR Patel, AR Patel out. Australia up from 73% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India125/10 Australia126/6

Innings 1

India

125/1018.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shubman Gillcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Josh Hazlewood	5	10	0	0	50.00
Abhishek Sharmalbw · Nathan Ellis 8 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Nathan Ellis	68	37	8	2	183.78
Sanju Samsonlbw · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nathan Ellis	2	4	0	0	50.00
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Josh Inglis · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Josh Inglis · b Josh Hazlewood	1	4	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	3	3.25	0
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	0
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	21	2	5.73	0
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1
Mitchell Owen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	1
Matthew Kuhnemann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	17	18/0
3	4	22/1
4	10	32/2
5	1	33/4
6	7	40/4
7	7	47/4
8	3	50/5
9	6	56/5
10	13	69/5
11	5	74/5
12	9	83/5
13	9	92/5
14	4	96/5
15	9	105/5
16	4	109/7
17	1	110/8
18	15	125/8
19	0	125/10

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