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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
3 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bhutan started on 45%; Bhutan batted first.
Bhutan's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Pradhanrun out · Hisham Sheikh · Atif-Ur-Rehman 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hisham Sheikh | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
| JN Dorjicaught · Abdul Waheed · Waji Ul Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdul Waheed · b Waji Ul Hassan | 9 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Tenjin Rabgeybowled · Hisham Sheikh 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hisham Sheikh | 20 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 64.52 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Shahzaib · Usman Khalid 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shahzaib · b Usman Khalid | 22 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 100.00 |
| Namgang Chejaycaught · Waqar Ul Hassan · Usman Khalid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waqar Ul Hassan · b Usman Khalid | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Usman Khalid · b Usman Najeeb |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Namgay Thinleynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Ngawang Thinleycaught · Hisham Sheikh · Usman Khalid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hisham Sheikh · b Usman Khalid | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| T Wangchukcaught · Atif-Ur-Rehman · Usman Khalid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Atif-Ur-Rehman · b Usman Khalid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Manoj Adhikaribowled · Ishtiaq Ahmad 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ishtiaq Ahmad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Sonam Yesheybowled · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ishtiaq Ahmad | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.43 | 2 | 0 |
| Atif-Ur-Rehman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (S Pradhan, 4.0) · 2-36 (JN Dorji, 6.1) · 3-67 (Tenjin Rabgey, 13.3) · 4-69 (Namgang Chejay, 14.2) · 5-70 (Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, 15.0) · 6-70 (Thinley Jamtsho, 15.2) · 7-73 (Ngawang Thinley, 16.2) · 8-75 (T Wangchuk, 16.4) · 9-89 (Manoj Adhikari, 18.2) · 10-89 (Sonam Yeshey, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 44/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 66/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 70/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 72/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 76/8 |
| 18 | 12 | 88/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 89/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.