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Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
14 Feb 2026 · T20
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 47%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tectorbowled · Shakeel Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Ross Adaircaught · Aamir Kaleem · Shakeel Ahmed 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aamir Kaleem · b Shakeel Ahmed | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 200.00 |
 Harry Tectorbowled · Shakeel Ahmed2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed | 14 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 107.69 |
| Lorcan Tuckernot out 10 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 94* | 51 | 10 | 4 | 184.31 |
| Curtis Campherlbw · Aamir Kaleem 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aamir Kaleem | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 171.43 |
| Gareth Delanycaught · AR Odedara · Shah Faisal 3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · AR Odedara · b Shah Faisal | 56 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 186.67 |
|---|
 George Dockrellnot out0 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 35* | 9 | 0 | 5 | 388.89 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadeem Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 17.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 19.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Tim Tector, 0.5) · 2-25 (Ross Adair, 2.4) · 3-45 (Harry Tector, 5.0) · 4-64 (Curtis Campher, 7.3) · 5-165 (Gareth Delany, 16.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/1 |
| 2 | 14 | 24/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 31/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 41/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 45/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 47/3 |
| 7 | 12 | 59/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 67/4 |
| 9 | 7 | 74/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 79/4 |
| 11 | 15 | 94/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 101/4 |
| 13 | 14 | 115/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 124/4 |
| 15 | 18 | 142/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 149/4 |
| 17 | 18 | 167/5 |
| 18 | 26 | 193/5 |
| 19 | 21 | 214/5 |
| 20 | 21 | 235/5 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
