Central DistrictsversusOtago

10 Jan 2024 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 8 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs115/7 Otago17.0 overs116/2 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 39%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Otago: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: EJ Black to GK Atkinson, GK Atkinson out. Otago up from 60% to 71%.
4.5: LCN Smith to TMM Newton, TMM Newton out. Otago up from 61% to 68%.
10.2: PJ Watkins to HJ Armitage, four by HJ Armitage. Central Districts up from 46% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts115/7 Otago116/2

Innings 1