Central DistrictsversusOtago

12 Jan 2025 · T20

Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 4 wickets

Central Districts18.4 overs90/10 Otago18.1 overs92/6 Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 39%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Otago: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

7.4: EJ Carson to HJ Armitage, HJ Armitage out. Otago up from 55% to 62%.
9.2: AS Browning to KA Tomlinson, KA Tomlinson out. Otago up from 58% to 64%.
2nd inns 3.4: CL Green to ON Gain, ON Gain out. Central Districts up from 10% to 15%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts90/10 Otago92/6

Innings 1