NottinghamshireversusYorkshire

22 May 2026 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Yorkshire won by 7 wickets

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs167/7 Yorkshire16.3 overs169/3 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 55%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Yorkshire: 33% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: GCH Hill to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Yorkshire up from 46% to 59%.
2nd inns 0.3: DY Pennington to A Lyth, A Lyth out. Nottinghamshire up from 42% to 56%.
2nd inns 1.4: Mohammad Ali to W Luxton, W Luxton out. Nottinghamshire up from 51% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire167/7 Yorkshire169/3

Innings 1