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ECA Men's European Cup · 2026 · Men
26 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Romania more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Turkey started on 10%; Turkey batted first.
Turkey's chances ranged from 0% to 11% during the match (Romania: 90% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Tuskanlbw · Nazmus Sakib (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nazmus Sakib (2) | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Serdar Burak Emirlbw · G Sanjeewa 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b G Sanjeewa | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Mustafa Balkisbowled · Nazmus Sakib (2) 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nazmus Sakib (2) | 23 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 62.16 |
| Ibrahim Kursad Dalyancaught · G Sanjeewa · J Khadka 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · G Sanjeewa · b J Khadka | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 121.74 |
| Furkan Tuskanbowled · Nazmus Sakib (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nazmus Sakib (2) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Mertcan Donmez |
| caught · Shahab Alam (2) · b J Khadka |
| 14 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 93.33 |
| Muhammad Fahadcaught · Rohit Kumar · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Irfan Ringku | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Murat Yilmazcaught · S Nadigotla · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Nadigotla · b Irfan Ringku | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Omer Kutuknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Mustafa Atmacarun out · Rohit Kumar, S Nadigotla · G Sanjeewa 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rohit Kumar, S Nadigotla | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irfan Ringku0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 2 | 0 |
| G Sanjeewa0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Umair Safi1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Nazmus Sakib (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| J Khadka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Taranjeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Serdar Burak Emir, 1.1) · 2-45 (G Tuskan, 9.3) · 3-50 (Mustafa Balkis, 11.2) · 4-50 (Furkan Tuskan, 11.3) · 5-89 (Ibrahim Kursad Dalyan, 16.3) · 6-90 (Mertcan Donmez, 16.5) · 7-91 (Murat Yilmaz, 17.1) · 8-92 (Muhammad Fahad, 17.3) · 9-103 (Mustafa Atmaca, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 54/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 62/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 76/4 |
| 16 | 11 | 87/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 91/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 94/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 99/8 |
| 20 | 4 | 103/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.