Royal Challengers BengaluruversusKolkata Knight Riders

29 Mar 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kolkata Knight Riders won by 7 wickets

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs182/6 Kolkata Knight Riders16.5 overs186/3 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 48%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Kolkata Knight Riders is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Kolkata Knight Riders: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Harshit Rana to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 42% to 55%.
2nd inns 1.4: Yash Dayal to SP Narine, four by SP Narine. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 55% to 63%.
2nd inns 7.5: Vijaykumar Vyshak to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 15% to 23%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru182/6 Kolkata Knight Riders186/3

Innings 1