NepalversusHong Kong

20 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 4 wickets

Nepal20.0 overs139/8 Hong Kong19.3 overs140/6 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

65%Nepal35%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,586 vs 1,505 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 6 and Hong Kong won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 64%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 6% to 73% during the match (Hong Kong: 27% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.1: A Bohara to Anshuman Rath, six by Anshuman Rath. Hong Kong up from 50% to 68%.
2nd inns 17.2: DS Airee to A Gorawara, six by A Gorawara. Hong Kong up from 62% to 81%.
2nd inns 19.1: LN Rajbanshi to Nasrulla Rana, four by Nasrulla Rana. Hong Kong up from 65% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal139/8 Hong Kong140/6

Innings 1

Nepal

139/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Zeeshan Ali · Ayush Shukla 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zeeshan Ali · b Ayush Shukla	0	2	0	0	0.00
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Nizakat Khan · Ayush Shukla 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nizakat Khan · b Ayush Shukla	5	11	0	0	45.45
Sompal Kamicaught · Adit Gorawara · Ayush Shukla 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Adit Gorawara · b Ayush Shukla	12	7	2	0	171.43
Rohit Kumarlbw · Ateeq Iqbal 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ateeq Iqbal	21	19

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ayush Shukla0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	17	3	5.67	0	1
Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	2	0
Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	0	0
Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	1	0
Nasrulla Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	14	15/1
3	2	17/2
4	4	21/2
5	14	35/3
6	2	37/3
7	7	44/3
8	7	51/4
9	2	53/4
10	9	62/4
11	6	68/4
12	8	76/5
13	4	80/5
14	8	88/7
15	5	93/7
16	4	97/7
17	3	100/8
18	11	111/8
19	8	119/8
20	20	139/8

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