QatarversusSaudi Arabia

15 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 9 wickets

Qatar20.0 overs123/9 Saudi Arabia16.0 overs126/1 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Qatar more likely to win

65%Qatar35%Saudi Arabia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Qatar rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,534 vs 1,475 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Qatar won 3 and Saudi Arabia won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Qatar started on 63%; Qatar batted first.

Qatar’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Qatar's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Usman Najeeb to Saqlain Arshad, Saqlain Arshad out. Saudi Arabia up from 37% to 46%.
6.1: Ishtiaq Ahmad to I Liyanage, I Liyanage out. Saudi Arabia up from 52% to 62%.
8.2: Ishtiaq Ahmad to Mohammad Rizlan, Mohammad Rizlan out. Saudi Arabia up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Qatar123/9 Saudi Arabia126/1

Innings 1

Qatar

123/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imal Liyanagecaught · Faisal Khan · Ishtiaq Ahmad 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Faisal Khan · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	16	21	2	0	76.19
Saqlain Arshadcaught · Manan Ali · Usman Najeeb 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Manan Ali · b Usman Najeeb	8	9	1	0	88.89
Mohammad Ahnaffcaught · Usman Najeeb · Ahmad Raza 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usman Najeeb · b Ahmad Raza	5	7	1	0	71.43
Muhammad Tanveercaught · Ahmad Raza · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmad Raza · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	0	1	0	0	0.00
Muhammad Asimnot out 9 fours · 0 sixes	not out	60*	47	9	0	127.66

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Usman Najeeb1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	0	0
Ahmad Raza0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	3	1
Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	4	3.00	0	0
Manan Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	1	0
Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	0	0
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	24	0	8.00	0	0
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	0	2.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	6	6/0
3	10	16/1
4	5	21/1
5	3	24/1
6	7	31/2
7	1	32/4
8	13	45/4
9	6	51/5
10	10	61/5
11	4	65/5
12	6	71/5
13	12	83/5
14	10	93/6
15	2	95/6
16	8	103/6
17	8	111/7
18	3	114/7
19	6	120/7
20	3	123/9

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