Rajshahi WarriorsversusChattogram Royals

23 Jan 2026 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajshahi Warriors won by 63 runs

Rajshahi Warriors20.0 overs174/4 Chattogram Royals17.5 overs111/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajshahi Warriors started on 51%; Rajshahi Warriors batted first.

Rajshahi Warriors’s chance of winning (%) · Chattogram Royals is the rest

Rajshahi Warriors's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Chattogram Royals: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: B Fernando to Mohammad Naim, Mohammad Naim out. Rajshahi Warriors up from 62% to 73%.
2nd inns 2.5: B Fernando to Mahmudul Hasan Joy, Mahmudul Hasan Joy out. Rajshahi Warriors up from 74% to 84%.
2nd inns 5.4: Hasan Murad to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. Rajshahi Warriors up from 79% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajshahi Warriors174/4 Chattogram Royals111/10

Innings 1