South AfricaversusIreland

Ireland more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than South Africa (1,713 vs 1,554 on our results rating)
• In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 6 and Ireland won 1
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 44%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

1. 3.3: A Dalzell to F Tunnicliffe, four by F Tunnicliffe. South Africa up from 52% to 56%.
2. 9.2: AK Maguire to S Luus, S Luus out. Ireland up from 27% to 32%.
3. 13.1: AK Maguire to F Tunnicliffe, F Tunnicliffe out. Ireland up from 20% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.