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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
9 Oct 2026 · Test
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nic Maddinsonbowled · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Travis Headcaught · Kyle Verreynne · Wiaan Mulder2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Wiaan Mulder | 9 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 47.37 |
 Marnus Labuschagnelbw · Wiaan Mulder6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wiaan Mulder | 37 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 63.79 |
| caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Marco Jansen |
| 25 |
| 53 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 47.17 |
 Matt Renshawcaught · Aiden Markram · Simon Harmer21 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Simon Harmer | 190 | 397 | 21 | 1 | 47.86 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Aiden Markram · Anrich Nortje1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Anrich Nortje | 14 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 31.82 |
|---|
 Beau Webstercaught · Kyle Verreynne · Anrich Nortje1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Anrich Nortje | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Aiden Markram · Wiaan Mulder6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Wiaan Mulder | 43 | 98 | 6 | 0 | 43.88 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Wiaan Mulder1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wiaan Mulder | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24.00 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonlbw · Marco Jansen5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marco Jansen | 27 | 92 | 5 | 0 | 29.35 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 20 · wides: 2 · noballs: 8 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen9 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 31.0 | 9 | 68 | 3 | 2.19 | 1 | 3 |
 Wiaan Mulder6 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 27.0 | 6 | 68 | 4 | 2.52 | 0 | 4 |
| Anrich Nortje5 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.0 | 5 | 88 | 2 | 3.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 1 |
 Simon Harmer1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.2 | 1 | 68 | 1 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Travis Head, 7.5) · 2-24 (Nic Maddinson, 10.2) · 3-84 (Marnus Labuschagne, 26.0) · 4-84 (Steve Smith, 26.3) · 5-120 (Alex Carey, 41.4) · 6-124 (Beau Webster, 42.0) · 7-210 (Pat Cummins, 73.5) · 8-230 (Mitchell Starc, 81.3) · 9-364 (Nathan Lyon, 128.4) · 10-390 (Matt Renshaw, 137.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 26/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 38/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 38/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 39/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 19 | 12 | 57/2 |
| 20 | 10 | 67/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 78/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 79/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 84/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 84/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 84/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 95/4 |
| 32 | 0 | 95/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 95/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 105/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 107/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 113/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 115/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 119/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 120/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 124/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 125/6 |
| 44 | 1 | 126/6 |
| 45 | 1 | 127/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 130/6 |
| 47 | 2 | 132/6 |
| 48 | 3 | 135/6 |
| 49 | 0 | 135/6 |
| 50 | 5 | 140/6 |
| 51 | 2 | 142/6 |
| 52 | 2 | 144/6 |
| 53 | 5 | 149/6 |
| 54 | 0 | 149/6 |
| 55 | 3 | 152/6 |
| 56 | 7 | 159/6 |
| 57 | 2 | 161/6 |
| 58 | 3 | 164/6 |
| 59 | 1 | 165/6 |
| 60 | 0 | 165/6 |
| 61 | 4 | 169/6 |
| 62 | 5 | 174/6 |
| 63 | 3 | 177/6 |
| 64 | 9 | 186/6 |
| 65 | 1 | 187/6 |
| 66 | 9 | 196/6 |
| 67 | 0 | 196/6 |
| 68 | 1 | 197/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 198/6 |
| 70 | 4 | 202/6 |
| 71 | 1 | 203/6 |
| 72 | 3 | 206/6 |
| 73 | 3 | 209/6 |
| 74 | 1 | 210/7 |
| 75 | 4 | 214/7 |
| 76 | 1 | 215/7 |
| 77 | 3 | 218/7 |
| 78 | 1 | 219/7 |
| 79 | 2 | 221/7 |
| 80 | 4 | 225/7 |
| 81 | 4 | 229/7 |
| 82 | 2 | 231/8 |
| 83 | 1 | 232/8 |
| 84 | 1 | 233/8 |
| 85 | 1 | 234/8 |
| 86 | 8 | 242/8 |
| 87 | 8 | 250/8 |
| 88 | 4 | 254/8 |
| 89 | 0 | 254/8 |
| 90 | 3 | 257/8 |
| 91 | 4 | 261/8 |
| 92 | 6 | 267/8 |
| 93 | 8 | 275/8 |
| 94 | 0 | 275/8 |
| 95 | 1 | 276/8 |
| 96 | 1 | 277/8 |
| 97 | 1 | 278/8 |
| 98 | 5 | 283/8 |
| 99 | 5 | 288/8 |
| 100 | 1 | 289/8 |
| 101 | 3 | 292/8 |
| 102 | 3 | 295/8 |
| 103 | 1 | 296/8 |
| 104 | 3 | 299/8 |
| 105 | 1 | 300/8 |
| 106 | 1 | 301/8 |
| 107 | 4 | 305/8 |
| 108 | 4 | 309/8 |
| 109 | 1 | 310/8 |
| 110 | 0 | 310/8 |
| 111 | 2 | 312/8 |
| 112 | 1 | 313/8 |
| 113 | 1 | 314/8 |
| 114 | 5 | 319/8 |
| 115 | 5 | 324/8 |
| 116 | 5 | 329/8 |
| 117 | 1 | 330/8 |
| 118 | 5 | 335/8 |
| 119 | 9 | 344/8 |
| 120 | 1 | 345/8 |
| 121 | 5 | 350/8 |
| 122 | 1 | 351/8 |
| 123 | 1 | 352/8 |
| 124 | 1 | 353/8 |
| 125 | 4 | 357/8 |
| 126 | 1 | 358/8 |
| 127 | 4 | 362/8 |
| 128 | 0 | 362/8 |
| 129 | 2 | 364/9 |
| 130 | 6 | 370/9 |
| 131 | 2 | 372/9 |
| 132 | 5 | 377/9 |
| 133 | 5 | 382/9 |
| 134 | 5 | 387/9 |
| 135 | 1 | 388/9 |
| 136 | 1 | 389/9 |
| 137 | 1 | 390/9 |
| 138 | 0 | 390/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Nic Maddinson: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Simon Harmer: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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