Northern DiamondsversusSouthern Vipers

14 Jun 2024 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Southern Vipers won by 5 wickets

Northern Diamonds20.0 overs145/4 Southern Vipers18.5 overs146/5 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 34%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · Southern Vipers is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 1% to 90% during the match (Southern Vipers: 10% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: R Slater to CR Knott, CR Knott out. Northern Diamonds up from 54% to 67%.
2nd inns 10.4: HJ Armitage to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Northern Diamonds up from 72% to 87%.
2nd inns 15.4: K Fraser to CE Dean, four by CE Dean. Southern Vipers up from 52% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Diamonds145/4 Southern Vipers146/5

Innings 1