QatarversusKuwait

12 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 6 wickets

Qatar19.3 overs124/10 Kuwait10.0 overs127/4 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kuwait more likely to win

33%Qatar67%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kuwait rate stronger than Qatar (1,563 vs 1,459 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Kuwait won 4 and Qatar won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Qatar started on 30%; Qatar batted first.

Qatar’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Qatar's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Kuwait: 66% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: A Chenthamara to A Nagarajan, A Nagarajan out. Kuwait up from 67% to 76%.
2.6: Mohamed Shafeeq to Ikramullah Khan, Ikramullah Khan out. Kuwait up from 75% to 83%.
3.6: A Chenthamara to R Theruvath, R Theruvath out. Kuwait up from 80% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Qatar124/10 Kuwait127/4

Innings 1

Qatar

124/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Nagarajancaught · Bilal Tahir · Anudeep Chenthamara 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Bilal Tahir · b Anudeep Chenthamara	9	8	2	0	112.50
R Theruvathcaught · Mohomad Aslam · Anudeep Chenthamara 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mohomad Aslam · b Anudeep Chenthamara	15	11	2	1	136.36
Ikramullah Khancaught · Bilal Tahir · Mohamed Shafeeq 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Bilal Tahir · b Mohamed Shafeeq	0	5	0	0	0.00
Shahzaib Jamilcaught · Nimish Lathief · Anudeep Chenthamara 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Nimish Lathief · b Anudeep Chenthamara	34	35	4	1	97.14
Jassim Khanlbw · Mohomad Aslam 1 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Mohomad Aslam	20	14	1	2	142.86

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mohamed Shafeeq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	2	5.67	0
Anudeep Chenthamara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	3	5.00	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
NT Rajendran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	0	3.25	1
Nimish Lathief0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	2	11.00	1
Meet Bhavsar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	16	2	6.40	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/1
3	7	16/2
4	8	24/3
5	2	26/3
6	1	27/3
7	9	36/3
8	7	43/3
9	13	56/4
10	2	58/4
11	15	73/4
12	3	76/4
13	15	91/4
14	15	106/4
15	3	109/5
16	4	113/6
17	3	116/8
18	2	118/8
19	5	123/9
20	1	124/10

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