Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusTrinbago Knight Riders

16 Sept 2025 · T20

Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 9 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs166/8 Trinbago Knight Riders17.3 overs168/1 Providence Stadium, Guyana ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 42%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Trinbago Knight Riders is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Trinbago Knight Riders: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.1: SN Netravalkar to RRS Cornwall, RRS Cornwall out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 45% to 55%.
2nd inns 3.1: RRS Cornwall to C Munro, C Munro out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 39% to 51%.
2nd inns 3.4: RRS Cornwall to N Pooran, six by N Pooran. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 47% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons166/8 Trinbago Knight Riders168/1

Innings 1