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India Women tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Women
11 Dec 2024 · ODI
WACA, Perth · Venue photographAustralia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 86%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Richa Ghosh · Arundhati Reddy4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richa Ghosh · b Arundhati Reddy | 25 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 75.76 |
 Georgia Vollbowled · Arundhati Reddy4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arundhati Reddy | 26 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 86.67 |
 Ellyse Perrybowled · Arundhati Reddy0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arundhati Reddy | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Richa Ghosh · Arundhati Reddy1 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 22%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Richa Ghosh · b Arundhati Reddy |
| 10 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
 Annabel Sutherlandrun out · Richa Ghosh, Jemimah Rodrigues · Deepti Sharma9 fours · 4 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Jemimah Rodrigues | 110 | 95 | 9 | 4 | 115.79 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Minnu Mani · Deepti Sharma5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Minnu Mani · b Deepti Sharma | 50 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 78.13 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathnot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 56* | 50 | 5 | 0 | 112.00 |
|---|
 Sophie Molineuxnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 5.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Saima Thakor0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6.67 | 5 | 0 |
| Titas Sadhu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 6.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy2 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 2.60 | 3 | 1 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 77 | 1 | 8.56 | 0 | 0 |
 Minnu Mani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 7.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-58 (Georgia Voll, 10.1) · 2-60 (Phoebe Litchfield, 10.4) · 3-72 (Ellyse Perry, 14.2) · 4-78 (Beth Mooney, 16.1) · 5-174 (Ashleigh Gardner, 34.0) · 6-296 (Annabel Sutherland, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 52/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 57/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 58/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 61/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 70/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 78/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 79/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 82/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 84/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 86/4 |
| 22 | 10 | 96/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 101/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 108/4 |
| 25 | 9 | 117/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 124/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 131/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 134/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 140/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 148/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 155/4 |
| 32 | 9 | 164/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 172/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 174/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 177/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 183/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 187/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 195/5 |
| 40 | 17 | 212/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 214/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 218/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 226/5 |
| 44 | 16 | 242/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 250/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 255/5 |
| 47 | 6 | 261/5 |
| 48 | 10 | 271/5 |
| 49 | 7 | 278/5 |
| 50 | 20 | 298/6 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Minnu Mani: Davidjose365 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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