BangladeshversusWest Indies

10 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 8 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs103/8 West Indies12.5 overs104/2 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

22%Bangladesh78%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,594 vs 1,463 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 3 and Bangladesh won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 32% during the match (West Indies: 68% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: K Ramharack to S Rani, S Rani out. West Indies up from 73% to 79%.
5.6: K Ramharack to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. West Indies up from 75% to 80%.
11.5: A Munisar to Nigar Sultana, four by Nigar Sultana. Bangladesh up from 27% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh103/8 West Indies104/2

Innings 1

Bangladesh

103/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Akterbowled · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Karishma Ramharack	19	18	2	0	105.56
Shathi Ranistumped · Shemaine Campbelle · Karishma Ramharack 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Shemaine Campbelle · b Karishma Ramharack	9	12	1	0	75.00
Sobhana Mostarystumped · Shemaine Campbelle · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Shemaine Campbelle · b Karishma Ramharack	16	22	2	0	72.73
Nigar Sultanacaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Hayley Matthews 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Hayley Matthews	39	44	4	0	88.64
Taj Neharcaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Afy Fletcher0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	0	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	4	4.25	1	0
Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1	0
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	0	1
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	7	13/0
3	5	18/0
4	4	22/1
5	5	27/1
6	6	33/2
7	2	35/2
8	5	40/2
9	14	54/2
10	4	58/2
11	5	63/2
12	8	71/2
13	2	73/3
14	2	75/3
15	2	77/5
16	5	82/5
17	7	89/5
18	5	94/5
19	5	99/6
20	4	103/8

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