NetherlandsversusNepal

28 Feb 2024 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 2 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs184/4 Nepal20.0 overs182/8 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

40%Netherlands60%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Netherlands (1,563 vs 1,518 on our results rating)
Nepal are playing at home in Nepal
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 4 and Nepal won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 38%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 21% to 95% during the match (Nepal: 5% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.3: T van der Gugten to Karan KC, six by Karan KC. Nepal up from 24% to 47%.
2nd inns 19.2: RE van der Merwe to DS Airee, six by DS Airee. Nepal up from 34% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.6: RE van der Merwe to Pratis GC, 1 run to Pratis GC. Netherlands up from 65% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands184/4 Nepal182/8

Innings 1

Netherlands

184/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Kushal Malla 5 fours · 3 sixes	stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Kushal Malla	54	36	5	3	150.00
Max O'Dowdcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC	4	6	0	0	66.67
Sybrand Engelbrechtnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes	not out	49*	38	4	1	128.95
Scott Edwardsrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee · Kushal Malla 5 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee	33	16	5	0	206.25
Teja Nidamanururun out · Aasif Sheikh, Sundeep Jora · Dipendra Singh Airee 3 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Aasif Sheikh, Sundeep Jora	31	24	3	0	129.17

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	1	9.67	0
Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	42	0	10.50	6
Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	14	0	14.00	0
Dipendra Singh Airee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	0	5.00	0
Kushal Malla0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	1	9.25	4
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	1
Pratis GC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	0	9.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	10	15/0
3	15	30/1
4	11	41/1
5	14	55/1
6	0	55/1
7	4	59/1
8	10	69/1
9	8	77/2
10	11	88/2
11	12	100/2
12	10	110/2
13	13	123/3
14	8	131/3
15	12	143/3
16	10	153/3
17	11	164/3
18	3	167/3
19	10	177/3
20	7	184/4

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