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Zimbabwe Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
5 Mar 2026 · ODI
University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 65%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amelia Kerrcaught · Chiedza Dhururu · Christabel Chatonzwa2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chiedza Dhururu · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 15 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Emma McLeodcaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Precious Marange 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Precious Marange | 35 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 81.40 |
 Maddy Greenrun out · Loren Tshuma, Nomvelo Sibanda · Loren Tshuma7 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Loren Tshuma, Nomvelo Sibanda | 67 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 83.75 |
| Brooke Hallidaynot out 24 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 157* | 118 | 24 | 1 | 133.05 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 36%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 59* |
| 42 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 140.48 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 16 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomvelo Sibanda0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 7.44 | 6 | 1 |
| T Makusha0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 9.50 | 4 | 0 |
| A Zimunu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 9.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Christabel Chatonzwa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 6.56 | 2 | 0 |
 Precious Marange0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Loren Tshuma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 6.13 | 1 | 0 |
| B Biza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Amelia Kerr, 6.5) · 2-81 (Emma McLeod, 15.2) · 3-203 (Maddy Green, 34.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 46/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 54/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 57/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 67/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 75/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 77/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 85/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 88/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 100/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 107/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 111/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 118/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 123/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 128/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 26 | 15 | 145/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 150/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 156/2 |
| 29 | 10 | 166/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 170/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 176/2 |
| 32 | 8 | 184/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 191/2 |
| 34 | 12 | 203/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 205/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 211/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 220/3 |
| 38 | 10 | 230/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 235/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 237/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 242/3 |
| 42 | 18 | 260/3 |
| 43 | 10 | 270/3 |
| 44 | 9 | 279/3 |
| 45 | 14 | 293/3 |
| 46 | 18 | 311/3 |
| 47 | 10 | 321/3 |
| 48 | 6 | 327/3 |
| 49 | 11 | 338/3 |
| 50 | 16 | 354/3 |
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Precious Marange: Foreign and Commonwealth Office · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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