Royal Challengers BengaluruversusMumbai Indians

11 Apr 2024 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Mumbai Indians won by 7 wickets

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs196/8 Mumbai Indians15.3 overs199/3 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 41%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: JJ Bumrah to V Kohli, V Kohli out. Mumbai Indians up from 56% to 67%.
3.4: Akash Madhwal to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Mumbai Indians up from 63% to 73%.
2nd inns 8.5: Akash Deep to Ishan Kishan, Ishan Kishan out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 13% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru196/8 Mumbai Indians199/3

Innings 1