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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
7 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 47%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Sri Lanka: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Dushmantha Chameera 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Dushmantha Chameera | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 162.50 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanistumped · Kusal Mendis · Dushan Hemantha 6 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dushan Hemantha | 51 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 115.91 |
 Sean Williamscaught · Matheesha Pathirana · Dushan Hemantha5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matheesha Pathirana · b Dushan Hemantha | 23 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 209.09 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Dushan Hemantha3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Dushan Hemantha | 28 | 18 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 155.56 |
| Ryan Burlbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 26 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 173.33 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwalbw · Binura Fernando 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Binura Fernando | 18 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 163.64 |
|---|
| Tony Munyonganot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 9 | 2 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Brad Evanslbw · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matheesha Pathirana | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Tinotenda Maposarun out · Kusal Mendis, Kamil Mishara · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Kamil Mishara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 12.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Brian Bennett, 2.3) · 2-65 (Sean Williams, 6.5) · 3-121 (Sikandar Raza, 12.5) · 4-134 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 14.3) · 5-161 (Tashinga Musekiwa, 17.1) · 6-175 (Ryan Burl, 18.1) · 7-185 (Brad Evans, 19.1) · 8-187 (Tinotenda Maposa, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 31/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 41/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 58/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 66/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 72/2 |
| 9 | 13 | 85/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 94/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 104/2 |
| 12 | 13 | 117/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 127/3 |
| 15 | 12 | 139/4 |
| 16 | 14 | 153/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 161/4 |
| 18 | 14 | 175/5 |
| 19 | 10 | 185/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 191/8 |
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
