IrelandversusSri Lanka

13 Aug 2024 · T20

Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 7 runs

Ireland20.0 overs173/3 Sri Lanka20.0 overs166/7 Pembroke Cricket Club, Sandymount, Dublin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

32%Ireland68%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Ireland (1,732 vs 1,629 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 2 and Ireland won 0
Ireland are playing at home in Ireland

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 30%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 27% to 97% during the match (Sri Lanka: 3% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.2: FA Sargent to MAA Sanjeewani, MAA Sanjeewani out. Ireland up from 47% to 64%.
2nd inns 17.5: O Prendergast to KADA Kanchana, six by KADA Kanchana. Sri Lanka up from 21% to 39%.
2nd inns 18.1: J Maguire to WK Dilhari, four by WK Dilhari. Sri Lanka up from 29% to 43%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland173/3 Sri Lanka166/7

Innings 1

Ireland

173/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Huntercaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Shashini Gimhani 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Shashini Gimhani	9	10	1	0	90.00
Gaby Lewisrun out · Harshitha Madavi, Nilakshi de Silva · Achini Kulasuriya 17 fours · 2 sixes	run out · Harshitha Madavi, Nilakshi de Silva	119	75	17	2	158.67
Orla Prendergastcaught · Sachini Nisansala · Achini Kulasuriya 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sachini Nisansala · b Achini Kulasuriya	38	31	4	0	122.58
Rebecca Stokellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	4*	4	0	0	100.00
Extras	byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs

Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	0
Shashini Gimhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0
Ama Kanchana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0
Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	0	10.33	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	5	14/0
3	5	19/0
4	1	20/0
5	6	26/1
6	8	34/1
7	11	45/1
8	6	51/1
9	5	56/1
10	13	69/1
11	7	76/1
12	11	87/1
13	13	100/1
14	10	110/1
15	8	118/1
16	9	127/1
17	10	137/1
18	5	142/2
19	16	158/2
20	15	173/3

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