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India Women tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Women
8 Dec 2024 · ODI
Allan Border Field, Brisbane · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 86%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Smriti Mandhana · Saima Thakor8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Saima Thakor | 60 | 63 | 8 | 1 | 95.24 |
 Georgia Vollcaught · Richa Ghosh · Saima Thakor12 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richa Ghosh · b Saima Thakor | 101 | 87 | 12 | 0 | 116.09 |
 Ellyse Perrybowled · Deepti Sharma7 fours · 6 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 105 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 140.00 |
 Beth Mooneystumped · Richa Ghosh · Minnu Mani8 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 86% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 14%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| stumped · Richa Ghosh · b Minnu Mani |
| 56 |
| 44 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 127.27 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Renuka Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Renuka Singh | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Priya Mishra0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Priya Mishra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 12 | 4 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
 Sophie Molineuxcaught · A Reddy · Minnu Mani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Reddy · b Minnu Mani | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alana Kingcaught · Harleen Deol · Saima Thakor0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harleen Deol · b Saima Thakor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Kim Garthnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 78 | 1 | 7.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Saima Thakor0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 3 | 6.20 | 5 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Priya Mishra0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 88 | 1 | 8.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Minnu Mani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 71 | 2 | 7.89 | 1 | 0 |
 Smriti Mandhana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-130 (Phoebe Litchfield, 19.2) · 2-222 (Georgia Voll, 32.2) · 3-320 (Ellyse Perry, 43.5) · 4-327 (Annabel Sutherland, 45.0) · 5-328 (Ashleigh Gardner, 45.3) · 6-340 (Beth Mooney, 46.3) · 7-340 (Sophie Molineux, 46.5) · 8-350 (Alana King, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 12 | 49/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 50/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 59/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 65/0 |
| 12 | 6 | 71/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 79/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 85/0 |
| 15 | 9 | 94/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 98/0 |
| 17 | 9 | 107/0 |
| 18 | 5 | 112/0 |
| 19 | 11 | 123/0 |
| 20 | 11 | 134/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 145/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 146/1 |
| 23 | 10 | 156/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 162/1 |
| 25 | 7 | 169/1 |
| 26 | 8 | 177/1 |
| 27 | 5 | 182/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 185/1 |
| 29 | 10 | 195/1 |
| 30 | 5 | 200/1 |
| 31 | 8 | 208/1 |
| 32 | 14 | 222/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 224/2 |
| 34 | 8 | 232/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 236/2 |
| 36 | 3 | 239/2 |
| 37 | 13 | 252/2 |
| 38 | 13 | 265/2 |
| 39 | 12 | 277/2 |
| 40 | 6 | 283/2 |
| 41 | 12 | 295/2 |
| 42 | 11 | 306/2 |
| 43 | 7 | 313/2 |
| 44 | 8 | 321/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 327/4 |
| 46 | 5 | 332/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 341/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 346/7 |
| 49 | 9 | 355/8 |
| 50 | 16 | 371/8 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Minnu Mani: Davidjose365 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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