MongoliaversusMyanmar

14 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Myanmar won by 9 wickets

Mongolia16.4 overs56/10 Myanmar5.2 overs60/1 YSD-UKM Cricket Oval, Bangi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Myanmar more likely to win

42%Mongolia58%Myanmar

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Myanmar won 1 and Mongolia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Myanmar rate stronger than Mongolia (1,221 vs 1,202 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mongolia started on 38%; Mongolia batted first.

Mongolia’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Mongolia's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Myanmar: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: KK Lin Thu to G Ganbold, G Ganbold out. Myanmar up from 66% to 72%.
2.2: Pyae Phyo Wai to B Namsrai, B Namsrai out. Myanmar up from 74% to 79%.
16.4: Nyeing Cham Soe to L Erdenebulgan, L Erdenebulgan out. Myanmar up from 93% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mongolia56/10 Myanmar60/1

Innings 1

Mongolia

56/1016.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mongolia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	SR
Namsrai Bat-yalaltlbw · Pyae Phyo Wai 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Pyae Phyo Wai	0	8	0.00
Gandemberel Ganboldbowled · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	0	3	0.00
Bilegdemberel Munkhdelgerrun out · Pyae Phyo Wai, Ye Naing Tun · Aung Ko Ko 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Pyae Phyo Wai, Ye Naing Tun	7	23	30.43
Uugan-Erdene Batjargalbowled · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ko Ko Lin Thu	3	5	60.00
Sodbileg Gantulgacaught · Htet Lin Oo · Paing Danu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Htet Lin Oo · b Paing Danu	4	16	25.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pyae Phyo Wai2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	5	1	1.25	1
Ko Ko Lin Thu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	2	1.75	0
Aung Ko Ko0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	1
Paing Danu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	3	4.00	5
Nyein Cham Soe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	0	17	3	6.38	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	0	0/1
3	4	4/2
4	2	6/3
5	0	6/3
6	2	8/3
7	1	9/3
8	3	12/3
9	4	16/4
10	2	18/5
11	6	24/5
12	7	31/5
13	4	35/6
14	2	37/6
15	6	43/7
16	5	48/9
17	8	56/10

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