AustraliaversusEngland

11 Sept 2024 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 28 runs

Australia19.3 overs179/10 England19.2 overs151/10 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

63%Australia37%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,766 vs 1,618 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and Australia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 61%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: XC Bartlett to JM Cox, JM Cox out. Australia up from 59% to 72%.
2nd inns 12.4: SA Abbott to SM Curran, SM Curran out. Australia up from 64% to 82%.
2nd inns 13.1: JR Hazlewood to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. Australia up from 81% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia179/10 England151/10

Innings 1

Australia

179/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Matthew Shortcaught · Sam Curran · Liam Livingstone 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sam Curran · b Liam Livingstone	41	26	4	2	157.69
Travis Headcaught · Jordan Cox · Saqib Mahmood 8 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Jordan Cox · b Saqib Mahmood	59	23	8	4	256.52
Mitchell Marshbowled · Adil Rashid 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adil Rashid	2	3	0	0	66.67
Josh Inglisbowled · Sam Curran 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sam Curran	37	27	2

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	31	2	8.86	0
Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0
Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	0
Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	35	1	17.50	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0
Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0
Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	3	7.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	15	23/0
3	12	35/0
4	6	41/0
5	30	71/0
6	15	86/1
7	5	91/2
8	10	101/2
9	7	108/2
10	10	118/2
11	3	121/3
12	5	126/3
13	8	134/5
14	10	144/5
15	11	155/5
16	6	161/5
17	6	167/6
18	5	172/8
19	1	173/9
20	6	179/10

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